Subscribers already knew this. Subscribe for real-time access

Weekly recap · May 11 – 16, 2026

Power Procurement Replaces Real Estate as Texas Counties Tighten the Filter

Power procurement displaced real estate as the gating decision in Texas datacenter development this week, and the counties decided who gets to build at all.

The week in briefings

  1. Mon May 11Recycled Water Is the Texas Permit Edge. San Antonio Just Proved It.
  2. Tue May 12Three Deals, One Thesis: The Capital Stack Is Buying Electrons Now
  3. Wed May 13Closed-Loop Cooling Wins Red Oak While Somervell Calls for a Statewide Pause
  4. Thu May 14Hill County Draws the Line. Eight Projects Now Wait a Year.
  5. Fri May 15Behind-the-Meter Gas Is the New Default. Chevron Just Set the Texas Template.
  6. Sat May 16Beacon Point Sets the 1-GW Template While 300 GW Wait in Queue

The Capital Stack Buys Electrons

Three deals in 72 hours confirmed the pivot. Blackstone and Halliburton put $1 billion into VoltaGrid for behind-the-meter generation. NVIDIA committed $2.1 billion to IREN, anchored by the Sweetwater Texas 2 GW campus. Constellation locked another 380 MW with CyrusOne on top of Calpine's prior 400 MW. By Friday, Chevron's Energy Forge One had filed for a $227 million JETI break on a 2,500 MW gas plant near Pecos serving a proposed Microsoft campus, bypassing ERCOT's queue entirely. Rabobank now pegs roughly 80% of planned behind-the-meter projects on natural gas. The Tue is no longer debatable: own the electrons or get queued behind those who do.

Hut 8's Beacon Point in Nueces County showed what disciplined sequencing looks like. A 1-GW campus, sole-source EPCM with Jacobs, 15-year triple-net lease valued at $9.8 billion, AEP Texas interconnection executed, substation under construction, energization targeted for 2027. The Sat is the standard. Most projects aren't there yet, and ERCOT's own 49.8% realization factor on non-crypto loads confirms it.

Counties Tighten the Filter

The social license caught up to the build pattern.

  • Hill County commissioners voted 3-2 for a one-year moratorium, the first formal halt by a Texas county, triggered by a 300-acre Provident Data Centers filing with eight projects already in development. Senator Paul Bettencourt asked AG Paxton to review county authority.
  • Somervell County unanimously opposed all new projects pending state action.
  • Red Oak approved Compass Datacenters' sixth campus 4-1 after closed-loop cooling, setbacks, and noise commitments landed before the vote.

The pattern across Thu and the Wed isn't ideological. It's about who showed up with water offsets, cooling specifics, and benefit-sharing already in hand. Gallup put national opposition to local AI datacenters at 71%, higher than nuclear's 53%.

Water Moves Upstream of Site Selection

UT-Austin researchers Arzumanyan and Bahadur projected Texas datacenter water use rising to as much as 9% of statewide consumption by 2040. The Texas Water Development Board draft 2027 plan pegs infrastructure need at $174 billion, more than double the prior plan. CPS Energy showed the counter-template: 75% of datacenter water sourced from recycled wastewater, total load at 0.1% of municipal supply. The Mon and the Fri bracket the spread between disciplined operators and the rest.

What to Watch

  • Hill County moratorium legal review — Paxton's response on county authority sets the precedent for Hays and other commissioners weighing similar pauses.
  • Chevron JETI award timing — the $227 million ask is a price signal for every behind-the-meter gas project filed after it.
  • Rep. Drew Darby's water reporting framework — codification language ahead of the 2027 session will determine whether metered reporting becomes a permit baseline.
  • ERCOT 368 GW forecast filing with PUCT — the realization-factor debate decides who pays for speculative transmission build.