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Weekly recap · Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2026

$50,000 Per MW Before ERCOT Models Any Load

Texas just priced queue paper in cash: $50,000 per MW before ERCOT models a load.

The week in briefings

  1. Mon Aug 31TCEQ and Water Offsets Still Gate Chevron's Microsoft Load by 2028
  2. Tue Sep 1Only 22 GW Clear Section 9.5 Under Senate Bill 6 Batch Zero
  3. Wed Sep 2Fermi Cleared 6 GW Air in 205 Days; Denied ROW Still Cuts Jupiter's 2.45 GW
  4. Thu Sep 3Prosper Zoning Blocks White Rose's $580M on 1,600 Precinct Votes
  5. Fri Sep 4Control No. 58481 Puts $50K/MW Floor Before ERCOT Models 1 GW
  6. Sat Sep 5North Richland Hills Seeks State-Funded Health Studies at Iron Horse

Security Floor Sorts Executable Megawatts

The Public Utility Commission of Texas adopted §25.194 under Fri, locking Senate Bill 6 into rule. A 1 GW campus posts $50M in financial security before any interconnection study, held through energization, with forfeiture on withdrawal or false disclosure. CIAC by zone is still the second line item most models underweight.

Of 445.8 GW in large-load applications, only 22 GW met Section 9.5 maturity under Tue. 321 GW filed no studies. Governor Greg Abbott’s August 3 audit still freezes roughly 474 GW of requests until ownership, load, generation, water, and community terms clear. Batch Zero results remain targeted past April 9, 2027. Speculative slots now carry posted capital and idle site cost in the same quarter the study doesn’t run.

Behind-the-Meter Holds the COD Path

Private generation kept moving while the queue filtered vapor. Mon take-or-pay deal with Microsoft for 2028 Texas AI load, piping Permian gas into GE Vernova and Solar Turbines capacity that bypasses ERCOT timing. TCEQ air permits and water offsets still gate energization.

Wed in Amarillo in 205 days. Energy Transfer’s Green Chile lateral remains blocked on 0.63 miles of New Mexico State Trust land, cutting gas for up to 2.45 GW tied to Project Jupiter. SpaceX’s Bastrop foundry targets up to 18 months off turbine lead times; that only helps operators who already hold feedstock gas, laterals, and cooling water. Bilateral megawatts, TCEQ paths, and water rights now sit on the same Gantt chart as any remaining grid filing.

Local Consent Prices Water and Notice First

Thu to recommend denial of White Rose Partners’ $580M Project Tomahawk after more than 400 written comments and 1,600 precinct votes. Closed-loop design and substation adjacency didn’t clear the hearing. Sat under PUCT Control No. 58317 keep pressing a 3-mile residential setback, state-funded health studies, public consumption disclosure, and binding benefits on three Iron Horse sites.

TWDB still sits near a 30% response rate on mandatory water surveys. Senator Charles Perry rejected confidentiality and signaled a standalone 2027 bill. Operators who don’t file survey answers, verified offsets, noise baselines, and benefit terms before the next county packet carry multi-quarter hearing risk on every residential-adjacent parcel.

What to Watch

  • Batch Zero results against the April 9, 2027 target and any PUCT good-cause exception language
  • Control No. 58317 comment volume on Iron Horse setbacks and whether staff respond on the record
  • TWDB and PUCT water-survey compliance before January 2027 session drafts freeze disclosure terms
  • First §25.194 security posts and how CIAC zone ranges price into 1 GW study requests